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Factbox: Most Brokerages Anticipate 25 Bps Fed Rate Cuts in November – Reuters
J.P. Morgan and BofA Global Research have recently aligned with several prominent brokerages forecasting a 25 basis point cut in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates in November. This adjustment stems from robust U.S. nonfarm payrolls data released on Friday, which indicates a resilient economy.
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, Macquarie, and Deutsche Bank have also reaffirmed their predictions for a 25 basis point decrease in both November and December.
Below are the updated forecasts from major brokerages following the jobs report:
| Rate Cut Estimates (in basis points) 2024 |
Brokerage | Nov | Dec | 2025 Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 25 | 25 | 3.0% – 3.25% | |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% | |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 3.50% – 3.75% | |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) | |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) | |
| J.P. Morgan | 25 | 25 | 3.0% (through September 2025) | |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 | 100 | 3.25% – 3.50% |
Before the jobs data was released, major brokerages had the following forecasts:
| Rate Cut Estimates (in basis points) 2024 |
Brokerage | Nov | Dec | 2025 Fed Funds Rate at end of 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 50 | 25 | 125 | |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 | 100 | 3.25% – 3.50% | |
| Deutsche Bank | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% | |
| Barclays | 25 | 25 | 3.50% – 3.75% | |
| Morgan Stanley | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) | |
| Macquarie | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) | |
| Goldman Sachs | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) | |
| Citigroup | 50 | 25 | ||
| J.P. Morgan | 50 | 25 | ||
| HSBC | 25 | 25 | 3.25% – 3.50% (through June 2025) |
This information indicates a shift in expectations following recent economic data, with many analysts anticipating modest cuts to interest rates in the near future.
