US Officials Question Potential Benefits of Easing Ukraine Weapons Restrictions, Says Reuters

By Phil Stewart, Jonathan Landay, and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON – As discussions continue between the U.S. and the U.K. regarding the possibility of allowing Ukraine to utilize Western weapons for strikes deep within Russian territory, some American officials express skepticism about the effectiveness of such actions in altering the battlefield dynamics against Russian forces.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer arrived in Washington to meet with President Joe Biden to deliberate on granting Ukraine approval to use NATO-supplied munitions to target locations well beyond its borders—something the U.S. administration has refrained from allowing throughout the ongoing conflict, which has lasted more than two years.

U.S. officials point out that Ukraine already possesses the capability to strike inside Russia using drones. While U.S.-provided long-range ATACMS missiles could improve this capacity, their high cost and limited availability mean they might not significantly influence the situation. Furthermore, they noted that Russia has relocated its warplanes, which pose an immediate threat, beyond the reach of these missiles.

Officials advocate that Ukraine should concentrate on halting the Russian offensive in the eastern regions of the country.

For Biden, the choice is not merely tactical; it raises potential risks of escalating the conflict into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. Russia issued a warning at the United Nations, indicating that allowing Ukraine to launch missiles deep into Russian territory would make NATO “a direct party to hostilities against a nuclear power.” Russian President Vladimir Putin has asserted that such a move would significantly alter the conflict’s scale.

White House spokesperson John Kirby affirmed that the U.S. takes these threats seriously, even while recognizing that Putin’s rhetoric is not new. Democratic U.S. Representative Jason Crow, a member of the House intelligence and foreign affairs committees, minimized the likelihood of a Russian attack on Poland or other NATO countries, citing the significant losses Russia has sustained in Ukraine. He suggested that Putin is currently avoiding any direct confrontation with NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, addressing an audience at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, urged the U.S. and its allies to overlook Russia’s limits and allow long-range strikes into Russian territory to pressure Moscow into seeking peace. Ukraine has reportedly provided the U.S. and U.K. with a list of possible targets within Russia that could be hit if permitted.

The ongoing debate regarding the loosening of restrictions on Ukraine mirrors previous discussions surrounding Kyiv’s requests for additional military capabilities, such as F-16 fighter jets and Abrams tanks. Initially, Ukrainian officials aimed to use U.S.-provided ATACMS to target Russian airbases; however, the Pentagon indicated that a majority of Russian aircraft responsible for launching glide bombs operate from locations well beyond the range of these missiles. Consequently, Ukraine’s interest has shifted towards hitting Russian military command centers, weapon storage sites, and troop concentrations instead.

Besides the ATACMS, Ukraine seeks to conduct long-range strikes using Storm Shadow missiles supplied by the U.K. and the comparable SCALP missiles from France. Although Britain is expected to seek U.S. approval before facilitating the use of Storm Shadow missiles, France has indicated that it requires no such authorization for the deployment of its missiles.

Another significant concern for U.S. officials is that a pivot towards long-range strikes might overshadow a more pressing issue: Russia’s ground advancements toward the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Ukraine. Losing this city could inflict a substantial blow to Ukrainian defenses.

Analysts observe that Russia possesses various response options, short of initiating direct warfare with NATO, should Ukraine be permitted to carry out strikes deep within its territory. In past statements, Putin has discussed the possibility of equipping Russia’s adversaries with weapons to attack Western targets and deploying conventional missiles within striking distance of the U.S. and its European allies. Some experts have also speculated that Putin might consider issuing a nuclear warning, such as by testing a nuclear weapon, to intimidate the West.

Crow contended that Putin’s position has weakened since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, suggesting that any significant retaliation poses risks for him. “Vladimir Putin is not invincible. We’ve seen evidence of his vulnerabilities, and he currently finds himself in a state of considerable weakness,” stated Crow.