Finland’s Next President Will Be a Pro-European Globalist, According to Reuters

By Anne Kauranen

Helsinki – Regardless of the outcome, Finland’s upcoming presidential election will yield a leader who is a pro-European cosmopolitan and a staunch supporter of Ukraine. The new president will replace incumbent Sauli Niinistö, who is stepping down as Finland embarks on a new chapter within NATO, having ended decades of non-alignment in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In this role, the president will closely collaborate with the government, represent Finland at NATO meetings, and serve as Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Defence Forces.

Former Prime Minister Alexander Stubb from the National Coalition Party narrowly won the first round of voting on January 28. He currently leads former Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, a centre-left liberal, by 6-8 percentage points in various polls.

"Both candidates have a distinctly urban background and possess strong international profiles," commented Markku Jokisipila, head of Finland’s Centre for Parliamentary Studies.

Jokisipila noted that Stubb is the clear frontrunner, as polls indicate that about one-third of the electorate supports leftist and green parties, while the remainder tends to lean conservatively.

If Haavisto were to achieve an unexpected victory, he would make history as Finland’s first openly gay president. However, his sexual orientation appears to influence voter opinions, with recent surveys showing that one in three individuals would hesitate to support him due to his relationship with a male partner.

During the campaign, Stubb has moderated his earlier position on EU federalism to reach a wider audience while still advocating for strong international ties and deep NATO collaboration. In contrast, Haavisto has affirmed his commitment to existing legislation that prohibits nuclear weapons on Finnish soil, whereas Stubb supports the transportation of such weapons through Finland but not their storage within the country.

"Stubb is prepared to explore increased NATO integration," remarked Jokisipila. He also highlighted Stubb’s backing for the permanent presence of NATO troops in Finland, a stance not shared by Haavisto, who sees no necessity for such measures.

This debate around Finland’s NATO involvement has gained prominence following the country’s recent defense cooperation agreement with the U.S., which allows American military access to several Finnish facilities and supports the storage of military equipment and ammunition.

With a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, Finland’s defense pact has drawn objections from Moscow, which labelled it as "an obvious threat" and warned that it would respond to the NATO military buildup along its border.

Supporters of the nationalist Finns Party candidate Jussi Halla-aho, who was eliminated in the first round after securing 19% of the vote, may feel disenchanted by the international orientation shared by both remaining candidates.

"It is possible that many supporters of the Finns Party will choose to abstain from voting, either as a form of protest or because they perceive both candidates as too similar, rendering the election’s outcome insignificant," noted Vuorelma.