Factbox: Majority of Banks Anticipate Continued Gold Bull Run Through 2025 – Reuters

Major banks anticipate that gold will continue its record price rally into 2025, driven by renewed large inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the expectation of additional interest rate cuts by leading central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Analysts from J.P. Morgan noted that while strong physical demand from China and central bank purchases have bolstered gold prices over the past two years, the key to maintaining a sustained rally lies in investor flows, particularly from retail-focused ETFs.

This year, gold has surged nearly $570 an ounce, climbing over 27%, and is on track for its largest annual increase since 2010. The precious metal recently reached a record high of $2,639.95 per ounce and has repeatedly set new highs throughout the year.

UBS analysts mentioned that despite the multiple peaks achieved this year and gold’s outperformance relative to major stock indices, they believe the metal still has significant upward potential in the next six to twelve months. They emphasize that revitalizing inflows into ETFs, which have been absent since April 2022, will play a crucial role.

Following a recent easing cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve, which included a half-percentage-point rate cut, expectations are for an additional 50 basis points of cuts by the end of this year and a full point next year. Gold, which does not yield interest, is often favored during periods of low interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty.

Upcoming events, such as the U.S. presidential election on November 5, could further influence gold prices due to potential market volatility that typically drives investors toward safe-haven assets.

Here are some recent brokerage forecasts for gold prices in 2024 and 2025 (in USD per ounce):

• Commerzbank: 2024 – $2,600; 2025 – $2,600 (mid-2025 target)
• ANZ: 2024 – $2,394; 2025 – $2,805 (end-2025 target of $2,900)
• Macquarie: 2024 – $2,339; 2025 – $2,463 (peak of $2,600 in Q1 2025 with potential to spike towards $3,000)
• Goldman Sachs: 2025 – $2,700
• UBS: 2025 – $2,700
• BofA: 2024 – $2,365; 2025 – $2,750 (with a possibility of reaching $3,000)
• J.P. Morgan: 2024 – $2,398; 2025 – $2,775 (target of $2,850)
• Citi Research: 2024 – $2,360; 2025 – $2,875 (baseline average price projections of $2,800-3,000 in 2025)

Note: End-of-period forecasts are indicated where applicable.