How Indonesia’s Outgoing Leader Influenced the Election to Succeed Him – Reuters

By Kate Lamb

SEMARANG, Indonesia (Reuters) – Although his name is not on the ballot, Indonesia’s immensely popular President Joko Widodo, often referred to as “Jokowi,” casts a long shadow over Wednesday’s election in the world’s third-largest democracy, particularly in his home province of Central Java.

In the provincial capital, Semarang, campaign posters proclaim “Jokowi Chooses Gerindra,” signaling support for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former rival, rather than Jokowi’s own political party. While Jokowi has not made an official endorsement in the race to succeed him, his son’s position as Prabowo’s running mate is widely interpreted as an implicit endorsement.

As Jokowi prepares to step down this October after serving two terms—which is the maximum allowed—his 80% approval rating gives him significant influence over Indonesia’s 205 million voters.

Prabowo, who has lost to Jokowi in the last two presidential elections, leads the current race, largely attributed to the perceived backing of the incumbent—often referred to as “the Jokowi effect.” This phenomenon is especially evident in Central Java, where Ganjar Pranowo, the former governor and a candidate previously seen as Jokowi’s natural successor, has seen his support wane dramatically.

The pivotal moment in the race was Prabowo’s choice to include Jokowi’s 36-year-old son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, on his ticket, which has bolstered Prabowo’s support in the polls over the last three months, according to analyst Kennedy Muslim. He noted that this decision has led to a significant shift of Jokowi loyalists toward Prabowo.

While it remains uncertain if Prabowo’s current lead will secure him the over 50% of votes needed to avoid a runoff, he is in a strong position as per recent polls. Just a year ago, Ganjar was the frontrunner with hopes to replicate Jokowi’s journey from provincial leader to president.

However, recent developments have seen Jokowi move closer to Prabowo, coinciding with reported tensions between the president and PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri.

The decision to include Gibran on Prabowo’s ticket has been a game-changer, pushing Ganjar’s approval ratings down from 68% to 38% in Central Java, allowing Prabowo to surpass him in popularity.

“The drastic drop in Ganjar’s poll numbers, even in regions traditionally loyal to him, is attributed to this ‘Jokowi effect’,” Muslim stated, highlighting the significant influence Jokowi has as a “kingmaker.”

The sentiment among party members is that familial ties outweigh political affiliations. Sudaryono, head of Prabowo’s party in Central Java, remarked that “blood is thicker than political parties.”

Local voters have echoed similar sentiments, with a market stall owner in Semarang stating, “When people see Gibran, they see Jokowi. If Gibran wasn’t there, Prabowo would drop for sure.”

Prabowo’s campaign has strategically shifted away from past hardline rhetoric, adopting a more affable public image. At a recent lively campaign event in Tegal City, fans wore baby-blue shirts emblazoned with Prabowo’s AI-generated likeness.

“I like the free food for school children program,” noted Isnaeni, a local mother. “Prabowo loves the people.” Nevertheless, analysts emphasize that Jokowi’s unspoken support remains a crucial factor in Prabowo’s rise.

Jokowi’s effective governance, characterized by low inflation, social spending, and infrastructure development, is credited with his enduring popularity. Observers have raised concerns about democratic backsliding, yet grassroots support remains strong for Jokowi, who is widely viewed as approachable and focused on the welfare of ordinary Indonesians.

Recent visits by Jokowi to Central Java to distribute aid have sparked allegations of bias, though the government denies that any candidate is benefiting from social assistance programs.

Many within Prabowo’s camp are focused on converting Jokowi’s popularity into votes. They highlight the defence minister’s promise to continue the policies that have defined Jokowi’s administration.

Analysts caution that stability is not guaranteed, as much of the power will shift following the election. “The vast bulk of power resides with the office of the president,” said analyst Kevin O’Rourke. “When Jokowi steps down on October 20, the dynamics will change significantly.”