Australia Lowers Commodity Revenue Forecasts as Prices Decline: Reuters

By Lewis Jackson

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia has slightly lowered its projections for resource and energy export earnings due to falling prices across various commodities and a strengthening currency, impacting a crucial source of government revenue.

The country now anticipates that commodity export earnings will decline by approximately 10% to A$372 billion (around $256 billion) for the year ending June 30, 2025, revised from a prior estimate of A$380 billion made in June. Last year, revenues reached A$415 billion.

This downward trend is expected to persist into 2026, albeit at a slower rate, with earnings predicted to fall to A$354 billion.

The decline in commodity prices is attributed to slower economic growth in developed nations, primarily due to rising interest rates, along with weakened demand from China, a key market for steel and other commodities, according to the report.

Iron ore, Australia’s most significant export, has been particularly affected by the slowdown in the Chinese property sector, with prices dropping by about a third this year.

The country estimates that iron ore export revenue will decrease to A$99 billion in the year ending June 30, 2026, down from A$138 billion last year.

Prices for a range of resources covered by the report, including metals crucial for the renewable energy transition such as nickel and lithium, have also seen declines.

Lower prices, driven by an increase in supply from Indonesia, have led to the closure of some Australian nickel mines.