IEA Adjusts 2024 Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Differentiating from OPEC Perspective

By Natalie Grover

LONDON (Reuters) – The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024, further widening the gap between its expectations and those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding global oil consumption for the year.

The Paris-based energy authority has lowered its growth outlook for this year by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.1 million bpd, primarily citing weak demand from developed OECD countries.

Conversely, OPEC maintains its prediction that global oil demand will increase by 2.25 million bpd in 2024.

The notable disparity between the two organizations’ forecasts stems in part from differing perspectives on the speed of the global shift towards cleaner fuels.

In its monthly oil report, the IEA linked its reduced oil demand forecast for 2024 to sluggish industrial activity and a mild winter that has diminished gasoil consumption, especially in Europe, where the declining percentage of diesel cars is also affecting consumption levels.

The IEA noted, "Combined with weak diesel deliveries in the United States at the start of the year, this was sufficient to push OECD oil demand into contraction in the first quarter."

The IEA also slightly increased its oil growth forecast for 2025 to 1.2 million bpd, now marginally surpassing its projection for 2024. Meanwhile, OPEC has estimated oil demand growth at 1.85 million bpd for the coming year.