Explainer: The Importance of Avdiivka and Russia’s Motivation for Its Capture

By Dan Peleschuk and Andrew Osborn

Kyiv/London – Russian forces are ramping up their efforts to capture the small city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine as the conflict continues to unfold. The situation bears similarities to the prolonged battle for Bakhmut, which fell to Russian control last May after enduring months of fierce urban warfare, marking 15 months since Moscow initiated what it describes as a "special military operation."

Overview of Avdiivka

Avdiivka, home to around 32,000 residents before the war, was briefly taken by Moscow-backed separatists in 2014 during their seizure of part of eastern Ukraine but was retaken by Ukrainian forces, who fortified the area. Currently, officials report that fewer than 1,000 residents remain, with many taking shelter in basements and cellars. Local authorities state that not a single building is still standing, and the city’s mayor notes that Avdiivka is under constant attack from all sides.

Located in the industrial Donbas region, Avdiivka is situated just 15 kilometers north of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. Before the conflict, its Soviet-era coke plant was one of Europe’s top producers.

Russian-supported officials refer to Avdiivka as a "fortress" filled with concrete bunkers, indicating that defenders are stationed in towering buildings that pose significant challenges for direct assaults. They suggest that the coking plant is being utilized as a command center and munitions storage.

Intense Combat

Ukrainian and Western military experts have pointed out that the Russian offensive on Avdiivka is resulting in a heavy loss of life. British military intelligence reported last November that the clashes had contributed to some of the highest casualty rates for Russian forces during the conflict.

A member of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade remarked on the persistent influx of fresh Russian troops, disregarding the harsh weather and significant losses, stating that they continue to advance over the bodies of their fallen comrades.

Russian military bloggers, under strict oversight from the Kremlin, have admitted to substantial Russian casualties while also claiming that Ukrainian forces are suffering losses. They warn that Kyiv’s troops could be encircled if Russian forces succeed in severing their remaining main supply line to the west.

President Vladimir Putin emphasized the importance of Avdiivka in late January, asserting that a group of military veterans had made advances by capturing 19 buildings, though this claim, like many battlefield reports, remains unverified.

The Russian military has been conducting airstrikes with assistance from special forces while employing artillery, drones, helicopters, tanks, and infantry, according to sparse yet regular updates from Russia’s defense ministry.

Significance of Avdiivka

Both sides view Avdiivka as crucial for Russia’s objective of establishing complete control over the two eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Russia claims to have annexed but does not fully control. Avdiivka is seen as a gateway to Donetsk city, which Russian officials allege has faced shelling from Ukrainian forces, occasionally originating from Avdiivka itself.

Capturing Avdiivka could bolster Russian morale and weaken the resolve of Ukrainian forces, who have achieved only incremental progress in their broader counteroffensive since June. In December, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself visited the area.

Former Kremlin advisor Sergei Markov noted that if Russian forces manage to control the supply route, Ukrainian armed forces would likely be compelled to withdraw from Avdiivka, which would mark a significant victory for Russia.

Mykola Bielieskov, from the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, suggested that while capturing Avdiivka may not decisively shift the balance in Moscow’s favor, it would enhance the viability of Occupied Donetsk as a strategic logistics hub for Russian operations. Bielieskov expressed concern that the Kremlin aims to strengthen the position of Western skeptics advocating for reduced support for Ukraine, given the limited effectiveness of extensive military aid provided thus far.