Trump Pursues Elusive 2024 Election Victory

By Alexandra Ulmer, Nathan Layne, Gram Slattery

YORK, Pennsylvania – Last month, as Trump campaign volunteers Rachel and Chris Gottberg prepared to knock on doors in York, Pennsylvania, they aimed to engage infrequent voters, considered crucial for securing victory in this pivotal state.

Dressed in red shirts that read "Trump Force Captain," the couple was among the small group gathered at the local Republican Party headquarters in this working-class city of roughly 45,000. They planned to bring along their eight-month-old baby in a stroller.

The Gottbergs focused their efforts on newly registered voters and what political campaigns refer to as "low propensity" voters—those who do not participate in every election cycle, possibly even missing presidential elections.

The Trump campaign and its allies are placing an unprecedented emphasis on reaching these infrequent voters across seven battleground states, which could play a decisive role in the upcoming election against Democrat Kamala Harris. This information comes from interviews with numerous campaign staff, grassroots groups, party officials, donors, and a previously unreported donor call.

This strategy is labor-intensive and high-risk, potentially resulting in an influx of new voters, though there is also the risk that the targeted individuals may not turn out to vote, according to warnings from a Republican official and an academic expert.

"It’s definitely a new focus that wasn’t the case in 2020," said Rachel Gottberg, a seasoned campaign volunteer, before her and Chris’s door-knocking mission began in their car adorned with Trump campaign paraphernalia.

Typically, candidates aim at both infrequent and swing voters to expand their base. However, Trump’s campaign is placing a stronger emphasis on infrequent voters than in previous cycles. This demographic tends to be predominantly rural, white, and young, but there is also a significant portion of individuals from diverse backgrounds.

"We know they agree with us. We know they favor us, but we have to get them to the polls," said James Blair, the Trump campaign’s political director.

A recent survey indicated the potential for the Trump campaign to engage less reliable voters. While Trump held a slim lead over Harris among all likely voters, he led by a larger margin among those who did not participate in the 2020 election.

The campaign views mobilizing committed supporters who usually abstain from voting as essential to achieving victory. Additionally, the campaign is reaching out to independents and other persuadable voters, estimated to make up about 11% of the electorate in these battleground areas.

According to Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for a pro-Trump organization, "When you break down the numbers, you realize there’s 300,000 low-propensity, conservative-leaning votes in Arizona alone."

Given narrow margins in previous elections, Kolvet emphasized the importance of engaging these voters ahead of time.

In contrast, the Harris campaign is expected to implement a broader strategy, focusing on mobilizing women and other groups that may not have a strong affiliation with Trump through rallies and registration initiatives.

Jason Cabel Roe, a former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party, endorsed the Trump campaign’s focus on infrequent voters, citing their contribution to his success in 2016.

The campaign is being aided by at least four pro-Trump organizations specifically targeting lower-frequency voters, including a super PAC backed by a tech billionaire and a non-profit led by a prominent right-wing activist. This initiative intends to allocate substantial funding toward hiring door-knockers in key states.

Despite the efforts, some within Trump’s campaign express skepticism about a singular focus on infrequent voters over swing voters, who may be less loyal to any party and easier to mobilize.

One party official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, noted that engaging infrequent voters demands considerable resources, including multiple home visits and phone calls, as these individuals might not feel politically invested.

Political science research supports the approach, suggesting that mobilization efforts can be effective in presidential election cycles. However, there are also concerns about resource efficiency.

Blair, from the Trump campaign, asserted that while there is a strong focus on infrequent voters, swing and regular voters also receive targeted outreach through various channels.

In terms of resources, the Republican Party and its allies are putting significant effort into registering new voters and promoting mail-in voting, an area where the party traditionally falls short.

The Trump campaign’s strategy draws on its successful Iowa Republican nominating contest, where local volunteer captains helped Trump achieve victory with 51% of the votes.

Efforts are underway to train thousands of local captains, like the Gottbergs, who mentioned they had already knocked on 250 doors this election cycle.

Instead of casting a wide net, these volunteers receive targeted lists and focus on building relationships with individuals in their neighborhoods through direct engagement.

Comparatively, Democrats appear to be establishing a more extensive ground game for voter mobilization. Harris’s campaign claims to have a substantial number of paid staff in battleground states, as well as more campaign offices than Trump in critical areas.

Blair insists that the Trump campaign’s strategy is not weak and is further supported by outside organizations that enhance turnout efforts.

With new federal guidelines encouraging collaboration, the campaign plans to employ thousands of paid canvassers to reach millions of doors before Election Day.

Interviews with Republican county chairs indicated that the party’s voter mobilization efforts remain vigorous, although one official raised concerns about the intensity of resources in a particularly competitive area.

Despite some doubts about the ground game, campaign representatives reassured supporters that additional canvassers were being trained.

During a closed-door pitch to donors, a leading figure acknowledged that Democrats were currently outperforming them in grassroots mobilization but emphasized the need for continued funding and support to increase turnout among low-propensity voters.

The focus, it seems, will be on maximizing efforts to ensure these potential voters participate in the upcoming election.