Canadian Opposition Party Claims Election More Likely After Ending Deal with Trudeau, Reports Reuters

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA – An early election in Canada is increasingly likely as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has lost the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP), which had been aiding his minority government. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Thursday that he has withdrawn his party’s unconditional support, pushing Trudeau to search for new alliances to maintain his position until the next federal election, scheduled for the end of October 2025.

Polling suggests that the Liberals could face significant losses to the Conservative Party, the official opposition, amid growing voter fatigue with Trudeau, who has been in power since November 2015, and concerns regarding high costs and a housing shortage.

Trudeau experienced further setbacks when Jeremy Broadhurst, a close advisor who was to lead the Liberals’ election campaign, announced his resignation on Thursday. Broadhurst stated his desire to spend more time with his family, but Liberal insiders suggested he had doubts about Trudeau’s chances of winning.

Singh explained that the NDP ended its 2022 agreement to automatically support Trudeau after achieving many of its goals, particularly an increase in government social spending. He remarked, “I’ve ripped up the agreement with Justin Trudeau, and I know that means that an election is now more likely as a result. We are ready to fight an election whenever it happens.”

However, he also expressed dissatisfaction with the Liberal government’s recent decision to force railway workers back to work, describing it as “a horrible decision,” reflecting the NDP’s traditional alignment with labor unions.

For the moment, Trudeau’s government is stable, as a no-confidence vote can only succeed if opposition parties collaborate. Singh declined to reveal whether he would support a move to unseat Trudeau, indicating that his party would evaluate each issue individually.

The Conservatives are likely to press for several confidence votes to challenge Singh and keep the Liberals under pressure, hampering their ability to govern effectively. Singh’s NDP faces a complex situation ahead: if he supports or abstains from a confidence vote, it could be seen as weakness, while voting to bring down Trudeau would trigger an election amid dwindling support for the NDP.

The challenges for Trudeau became apparent after the Liberals lost one of their strongest seats to the Conservatives in a recent special election. An Ekos poll revealed that the Conservatives hold 38.2% support from the public, which could secure a majority due to vote-splitting among left-leaning parties. The Liberals garnered just 23.7%, with the NDP at 18.2%.

Shachi Kurl, president of a prominent polling firm, remarked that voters are not recognizing the NDP for its efforts in increasing social spending, and instead, the party seems affected by its association with Trudeau. She posed the question of whether it benefits the NDP or Singh to instigate an election under the current circumstances.

A senior Liberal official indicated that the party’s strategy does not involve provoking an early election, with the intention to remain in power until the scheduled deadline in October 2025. Trudeau also dismissed speculation regarding early elections, focusing instead on navigating the current political landscape.