The Race for Nigeria’s Presidency in 2019, By Reuters

By Paul Carsten

ABUJA – Nigerians will head to the polls on February 16 to select their leader from two seasoned politicians: President Muhammadu Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The duo has contested for the presidency nine times collectively.

While over 60 candidates will also be vying for the position, their likelihood of success is minimal compared to the entrenched influence of the two major parties that dominate Nigeria’s political landscape.

WHAT’S AT STAKE?

Buhari’s 2015 win was based on a commitment to eliminate corruption, revive the economy, and address security issues. Although his government claims progress, its efforts to combat the decade-long Boko Haram insurgency are faltering. Economically, while the nation has emerged from recession, many Nigerians are experiencing worsening living conditions. Critics argue that the administration selectively targets opponents in corruption investigations, overlooking questionable activities involving its allies.

Human rights organizations have reported military abuses, including violent crackdowns on protesters, while the military defends its actions as justified. Following a lengthy medical stay in the UK in 2017 for an undisclosed condition, Buhari faced scrutiny regarding his capacity to govern. Nevertheless, the president insists he is fit for another term, with opponents warning that his reelection could mean four more years of stagnation and rights violations.

If reelected, Buhari promises to continue infrastructure development and enhance entrepreneurial access to credit, while also pursuing anti-corruption initiatives.

Atiku, the candidate from the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), has long faced corruption allegations dating back to his tenure as vice president. He maintains his innocence and presents himself as a business-savvy alternative, aiming to implement policies that could grow Nigeria’s economy significantly by 2025 through privatization and infrastructure investment.

FAULT LINES AND FRACTURES

Nigeria’s divisions are marked by a north/south divide, predominantly between Muslims in the north and Christians in the south, along with over 200 ethnic groups. The largest groups are the Hausa, Yoruba, and Igbo. This diversity has led to an informal power-sharing agreement whereby the presidency alternates between the north and south after two four-year terms.

Buhari, a northern Muslim, has served since 2015, following southern Christian Goodluck Jonathan. In line with this arrangement, the PDP has fielded Atiku, also from the north, for the upcoming election. Although both candidates share similar backgrounds, ethnic, religious, and regional disparities may lead to unrest; however, the historical voting patterns show a divide with the south favoring the PDP and the north, Buhari.

The Middle Belt region is increasingly uncertain as ongoing conflicts over resources have claimed thousands of lives since 2016, creating potentially competitive landscapes for the election.

GENERATION GAP

With a median age of 18, many young Nigerians perceive the aging leadership as disconnected, prompting initiatives like "Not Too Young to Run" to encourage youth participation in politics. Buhari, at 76, and Atiku, 72, assert their vitality for the role, despite concerns about their relevance in contemporary governance.

The influence of former military leaders remains strong in Nigerian politics nearly two decades after the establishment of civilian rule. Buhari, a retired general, views his military background as an asset, while other military figures, like Olusegun Obasanjo and Ibrahim Babangida, continue to be politically significant, with both supporting Atiku.

THE PARTIES

The primary political parties, the APC and PDP, lack distinct ideological differences. Most electoral competition revolves around controlling national oil revenues, patronage, and ethnic rivalries. Buhari’s campaign highlights poverty alleviation and social programs, while Atiku emphasizes creating a favorable business climate and enhancing infrastructure.

Buhari won his initial term in 2015, constructing a coalition that extended from the north to the southwest under the APC umbrella. The PDP, which governed prior to 2015, leans toward the business sector while maintaining connections to the military. Atiku, initially a PDP member who allied with Buhari during the 2015 campaign, reverted to the PDP in late 2017.

ELECTION INTERFERENCE

Concerns persist regarding potential election interference and vote rigging, particularly following controversial state-level elections in the past. The 2015 election marked a significant transition with power changing hands from an incumbent to an opposition candidate for the first time since the return to civilian rule, though observers noted substantial electoral malpractices.

Recently, Buhari suspended the chief judge responsible for resolving electoral disputes, raising alarms about the judicial process and foreign governments expressed unease over this development. The Nigerian administration has urged foreign nations to avoid what it considers interference.

In the lead-up to the election, social media will be a vital channel for information, with the government launching a campaign against misinformation. Despite these tensions, the country’s National Security Office has confirmed that internet access will remain uninterrupted during the elections.

TURNOUT AND RUNOFFS

In the previous election, voter turnout was about 44% of the 67.4 million registered voters. For 2019, the total registered voters saw a significant increase to 84 million, with a notable proportion under 35.

The election winner requires not only the most votes but must also secure at least one-quarter of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states, or face a runoff.