iPhone 16 Lead Times Continue to Be Reduced, According to Morgan Stanley

According to a report from Morgan Stanley, lead times for the iPhone 16 are currently shorter than those for previous models. As of September 24, just 11 days after pre-orders began, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 in the U.S. stands at 15.2 days. In comparison, at the same point last year, the lead time for the iPhone 15 was 25.7 days, while the iPhone 14 had an average of 18 days.

Internationally, the average lead time for the iPhone 16 is 16.3 days, down from 28.5 days for the iPhone 15.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley interpret this trend as an indication of improved supply. However, they advise caution, stating, “While supply is improved, and we hear anecdotes of positive iPhone 16 demand, we still interpret these data points more cautiously.”

The lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max models are also noticeably shorter than in previous releases. The lead time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max is currently 25.5 days, which is 18 days shorter than for the iPhone 15 Pro Max. For the iPhone 16 Pro, lead times are at 18.5 days, decreased from 21.5 days just the previous Friday.

Despite the reduced lead times, Morgan Stanley warns that these early indicators might not reliably predict the entire sales cycle. They note that the pattern of iPhone 16 lead times mirrors trends from past cycles, with lead times typically peaking seven days after pre-orders begin, consistent with the last six or more iPhone launches.

The analysts suggest there is over a 50% chance of iPhone production cuts in the coming weeks, which could have implications for revenue in the upcoming December quarter. While demand for the iPhone 16 remains strong, any potential adjustments to production may emerge in early to mid-October, possibly impacting Apple’s revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter.