Muted Crude and Product Balances Anticipated This Week: Macquarie

Analysts at Macquarie have released their forecast for the week ending September 27, predicting minimal changes in U.S. crude and product balances.

They anticipate that inventories will remain relatively stable, with a slight increase of only 0.1 million barrels. This adjustment marks a shift from their prior estimate, which projected a build of 3.6 million barrels, particularly following a draw of 4.5 million barrels reported for the week ending September 20.

Several factors are influencing this week’s crude balance. Refineries are expected to decrease their crude processing by approximately 0.2 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, net imports are predicted to stay mostly unchanged, with a slight decrease in exports and a small drop in imports of 0.1 million barrels per day.

The timing of cargo arrivals could introduce some volatility, reflecting ongoing challenges in the crude market. Despite a weak production report from the previous week, Macquarie expects domestic supply to rebound, projecting an increase of 0.4 million barrels per day, even amid disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a modest rise in Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory is anticipated, with an increase of 0.7 million barrels.

On the product front, analysts forecast a draw in distillate stocks of about 1.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are expected to decline slightly by 0.3 million barrels, while jet fuel stocks are predicted to remain stable. Overall, implied demand for these three products is projected to be around 14.2 million barrels per day for the week ending September 27.

Macquarie’s analysis offers a practical perspective on the current crude and product balances, acknowledging market uncertainties while anticipating some stability in the near future.