Nasrallah’s Killing Exposes Israel’s Infiltration of Hezbollah

By Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi, and Maayan Lubell

In the aftermath of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination, Hezbollah confronts a significant challenge as it grapples with the infiltration within its ranks that enabled its arch-rival Israel to target and destroy critical weapon sites, compromise its communications, and eliminate the veteran leader, who had maintained a low profile for years.

Nasrallah was killed at a command headquarters on Friday, shortly after Israel conducted a deadly attack targeting booby-trapped pagers and radios. This incident marked a dramatic escalation in a series of strikes that have resulted in the deaths of about half of Hezbollah’s leadership council and significantly weakened its military command.

In the days leading up to and following Nasrallah’s death, numerous sources from Lebanon, Israel, Iran, and Syria revealed the extent of the damage inflicted on Hezbollah by Israeli forces, which extended beyond personnel losses to its supply lines and command structure. These sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, highlighted the sophistication of Israeli intelligence efforts against Hezbollah over the past two decades, enabling them to target Nasrallah effectively.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his close advisors greenlit the strike on Wednesday, right before Netanyahu addressed the U.N. General Assembly in New York. Notably, Nasrallah had drastically limited his public appearances since the 2006 conflict and had taken extra precautions following recent Israeli attacks that prompted fears for his safety.

The assassination has raised suspicions of internal breaches within Hezbollah, with insiders suggesting that informants may have provided Israel with critical intelligence. Observing his heightened caution, it is believed Nasrallah sought to avoid drawing attention to his whereabouts and engagements.

While Hezbollah’s media office has not issued a statement regarding the incident, U.S. President Joe Biden characterized Nasrallah’s killing as "a measure of justice" for his previous actions, reiterating America’s support for Israel’s right to self-defense against Iranian-backed entities.

Describing the operation, Israel claimed to have bombed Nasrallah’s underground command center situated beneath a residential building in southern Beirut. Experts suggest that this operation represents a significant blow to Hezbollah’s operational capabilities and intelligence efforts.

Including Nasrallah, Israeli military sources indicate that eight of Hezbollah’s nine senior military commanders have been killed over recent weeks, with casualties predominantly occurring in the timeline of these latest strikes. The commanders directed pivotal divisions, including the rocket and elite forces.

In the weeks leading up to the attacks, approximately 1,500 Hezbollah fighters were reportedly injured due to the detonations of Israeli-targeted devices. Israeli military officials indicated they possessed real-time intelligence on Nasrallah’s meetings with other leaders, which were focused on planning further attacks against Israel.

Hezbollah, recognized for its ability to quickly replace military commanders, faces a critical moment; Nasrallah’s cousin, Hashem Safieddine, has been identified as a likely successor. Despite its losses, Hezbollah retains a formidable force of around 40,000 fighters and substantial weaponry, bolstered by decades of support from Iran.

Historically, Hezbollah has been one of the most well-armed non-state military organizations, boasting a vast arsenal comprising rockets, missiles, and drones. However, recent conflicts have resulted in significant setbacks for the group, with estimates suggesting it may have lost about 20-25% of its missile capabilities during the recent wave of attacks.

Israeli intelligence asserts that Hezbollah’s retaliatory capabilities have been noticeably diminished, with only a few hundred missiles launched per day in recent conflicts.

As tensions continue to escalate, Iran has been reported to consider increasing its military support to Hezbollah, potentially contributing additional missile systems. Nevertheless, Iranian sources indicate a reluctance to get directly involved in the ongoing confrontation.

Recent developments also highlighted Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ personnel casualties from Israeli strikes, complicating the dynamics of military support between Iran and Hezbollah.

Currently, the pathways for supplying Hezbollah are becoming increasingly constricted, with Israeli surveillance and strikes targeting supply routes within Syria and Iraq. As Israel heightens vigilance regarding potential missile shipments from Iran to Hezbollah, the landscape of the conflict remains highly volatile and subject to rapid changes.