NVIDIA Blackwell Production Revenue in 1Q25 Could Exceed Hopper, According to Morgan Stanley

NVIDIA’s upcoming Blackwell AI chip is set to experience significant growth, with projections indicating that its production revenue in the first quarter of 2025 may exceed that of the current Hopper chips, according to analysts from Morgan Stanley.

Insider reports suggest that Blackwell chip production could reach between 750,000 and 800,000 units in the first quarter of 2025, a substantial increase from the estimated 250,000 to 300,000 units expected in the fourth quarter of 2024.

This surge in production is anticipated to generate between $5 billion and $10 billion in revenue for NVIDIA during the fourth quarter of 2024. Morgan Stanley highlights that demand for Blackwell chips has been characterized as “insane” by NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, who recently mentioned in an interview that customers are eager to secure substantial quantities of these high-performance AI chips.

Huang noted that “everybody wants to have the most and everybody wants to be first” in this competitive market.

While Hopper chip volumes, including the H200 and H20 models, are projected to total approximately 1.5 million units in the fourth quarter of 2024, Morgan Stanley foresees a gradual decline to around 1 million units in the first quarter of 2025. However, Blackwell chips are expected to command a higher price point, with B200 chips priced 60-70% more than H200 chips, positioning Blackwell revenue to surpass that of Hopper in the upcoming quarter.

Additionally, the report mentions the imminent introduction of NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72 server racks, which are set to launch in June 2025. This development is expected to enhance the company’s supply chain and further stimulate demand for Blackwell chips.

From a market perspective, the ramp-up of Blackwell is viewed positively for companies associated with NVIDIA’s GPU supply chain, such as TSMC and ASE. There could also be potential advantages for Aspeed due to increased baseboard management controller (BMC) content, although changes in specifications may introduce some uncertainty regarding the ramp-up timeline.