Housing Crisis and Rightward Shift Define San Francisco Mayoral Race – Reuters

By Judith Langowski

SAN FRANCISCO – The San Francisco mayoral race is heavily influenced by concerns over housing and crime, offering voters an opportunity to select a leadership direction to revitalize the city.

San Francisco exemplifies the difficulties many large American cities face, grappling with an uneven economic recovery and escalating living costs in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Critics argue that the city is stuck in a “doom loop,” marked by widespread street homelessness and open-air drug markets. The recovery of the downtown area has been sluggish, with numerous vacant storefronts and decreased foot traffic.

Currently, the city holds the highest office vacancy rate among major U.S. cities, estimated at around 32%.

In response, San Francisco has begun to undergo a political shift, evident in recent ballot measures that have implemented new police surveillance technologies and mandated drug testing for public assistance recipients.

Political observers anticipate that the upcoming mayoral election will highlight the rising popularity of the moderate-centrist faction within the local Democratic party, which gained traction in the recent elections.

“What voters care about right now are not necessarily the kinds of issues that progressives traditionally excel at,” said Jason McDaniel, a political science professor at San Francisco State University.

Early voting kicks off on October 7, with 13 candidates vying for votes through an instant-runoff, ranked-choice voting mechanism. Incumbent Mayor London Breed, who has led since a special election in 2018, faces four major opponents, all Democrats. Breed has received the endorsement of the local Democratic party.

An August poll indicated Breed’s lead, followed by moderate Democrats such as former interim Mayor Mark Farrell and philanthropist Daniel Lurie. Two progressive candidates, Aaron Peskin and Ahsha Safai, were trailing.

Key voter concerns emerged as crime and public safety, surpassing housing affordability and homelessness.

A delay in the election may have benefited Breed. A ballot measure enacted in 2022 shifted local elections to even-numbered years, aiming to increase voter turnout by aligning them with presidential elections. Consequently, Breed has had an additional year to enhance perceptions of her leadership instead of running for reelection last November.

“Pushing the election back a year, people are starting to feel better about the city,” noted McDaniel.

According to the San Francisco Police Department, crime rates have decreased by 32% year-over-year, attributed to increased police resources and improved surveillance technologies, as stated by Breed.

“Everything is functioning as intended,” Breed affirmed in an interview.

Farrell contends more action is essential, promising to appoint a new police chief within his first 100 days and claiming he would declare a “fentanyl state of emergency” to secure additional resources to combat the drug crisis.

Breed’s leadership has also faced criticisms regarding the slow pace of housing permits and construction. The city is significantly lagging behind state-mandated housing goals, which require the addition of 82,000 new units between 2023 and 2031. As of July, only around 500 new units had received permits, prompting the invocation of a state law to expedite the approval process.

“Many of our policies have made building more difficult, expensive, and have led to heightened opposition to development, particularly in neighborhoods unaccustomed to new housing,” Breed admitted.

She emphasized her intent to focus on underutilized areas for new construction while preserving the city’s character, known for its charming Victorian homes.

Despite having the highest median household income among major U.S. cities, San Francisco continues to struggle with homelessness. Recent studies estimate around 8,000 individuals are homeless, a number that some advocates believe underrepresents the reality.

Breed’s administration has initiated homeless tent sweeps since a Supreme Court ruling in June upheld the constitutionality of banning encampments. Breed has indicated that these sweeps are part of a broader strategy, which includes increasing shelter capacity and offering transportation for homeless individuals to family or support networks outside the city.

Peskin, one of the progressive candidates, criticized the approach, stating that individuals are being moved from one neighborhood to another without resolution.

Lurie, who founded a nonprofit dedicated to poverty reduction, argued that Breed has not done enough to keep people off the streets.

Lurie has thus far outspent other candidates, contributing over $6 million from his personal wealth. His campaign has received backing from tech executives and venture capitalists, including Jan Koum, the founder of a popular messaging app.

“Allowing people to remain on our streets is neither lawful nor compassionate,” Lurie stated.