Explainer: What Government Will Emerge in Austria After the Election?

VIENNA (Reuters) – Austria’s parliamentary election set for Sunday features a closely contested race between the ruling conservative Austrian People’s Party (OVP) and the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), which currently holds a slight lead in opinion polls. The FPO’s platform is known for its critical stance on Islam and its call to halt the granting of asylum.

Regardless of the outcome, it is expected that no party will achieve an absolute majority, necessitating the formation of a coalition with at least one other party to ensure a stable majority in parliament.

Potential Coalition Scenarios:

Election Outcomes and Coalition Dynamics

Typically, Austria’s president invites the winning party to discuss coalition options. However, President Alexander Van der Bellen, a former leader of the left-wing Greens, has expressed skepticism about the FPO and its leader Herbert Kickl, emphasizing that there is no constitutional requirement for him to approach the winning party.

The president remarked, "While it is established practice, it is not necessarily mandated by the constitution." This suggests he could opt for a different strategy.

With the leading three parties polling between 20% and 30%, there are limited avenues to a parliamentary majority. Historically, there has been only one postwar minority government formed by a party that claimed nearly half the available seats.

In the 1999 elections, the Social Democrats (SPO) emerged victorious, with the FPO and OVP nearly tied for second and third place, which ultimately led to an OVP-led coalition with the FPO.

FPO-OVP Coalition Possibility

Polls indicate that the only viable two-party coalition capable of securing a majority would be between the FPO and OVP. The OVP is the sole party expressing any openness to partnering with the FPO. Historically, the FPO has acted as a junior coalition partner to the OVP, with their most recent alliance from 2017 to 2019 ending in scandal and intense discord.

Both parties share similar views on issues such as immigration and tax policy. However, Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the OVP, who currently governs in coalition with the Greens, has stated that he will not participate in a government featuring Kickl as a member. Kickl, in turn, has asserted that it would be undemocratic for him not to be invited to form a government if the FPO wins; he appears unlikely to step aside for another FPO candidate.

If the FPO gains a larger victory margin, Kickl’s position will be further strengthened.

OVP and FPO Coalition Outlook

Should the OVP come out on top, many analysts speculate that a coalition with the FPO could be established quickly. If the FPO finishes second, Kickl has indicated he would not seek to lead the government, potentially easing the path to collaboration.

Conversely, an OVP-led coalition involving three parties could prove more complex. Political rivals have already labeled the possibility of an OVP-FPO coalition as "Ibiza 2.0," a reference to a scandal that led to the collapse of the last OVP-FPO coalition in 2019.

Alternatives: OVP-SPO-NEOS or OVP-SPO-GREENS

Centrist alliances between the OVP and SPO were standard for decades after World War Two, but these partnerships faced challenges towards the end of that era. The former OVP leader, Sebastian Kurz, ended the last coalition prematurely, citing weak compromises.

Today, an OVP-SPO coalition would likely require the inclusion of another party, such as the liberal NEOS or the Greens, both of which are currently polling around 10%. A three-party coalition could position itself as a centrist bulwark against the FPO, but managing the dynamics could be a challenging balancing act.

The OVP and NEOS advocate similar economic policies including lower taxes, while the SPO proposes wealth and inheritance taxes, measures opposed by both the OVP and NEOS. Meanwhile, the Greens find themselves as junior partners in a turbulent coalition with the OVP, which has faced significant strain this year.