Watchdog Reports Decline in Afghan Defense Forces as Peace Talks Progress, According to Reuters

By Greg Torode

KABUL – The strength of Afghanistan’s beleaguered defense forces has reached its lowest point in four years, according to a U.S. watchdog report released on Thursday. This decline comes amid ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban regarding the potential withdrawal of foreign troops.

Talks are set to resume in Qatar on February 25, focusing on a possible ceasefire and the withdrawal of thousands of NATO forces led by the U.S. Although several challenges remain, a withdrawal would further strain the Afghan defense forces.

The latest quarterly report from the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) highlighted that control over Afghanistan’s territory and population has become increasingly contested, with Afghan government control or influence continuing to diminish. By October 2018, 53.8 percent of districts were under government control or influence, covering 63.5 percent of the population, while the remaining areas were either controlled or contested by the Taliban.

Though the Taliban has not managed to capture any major Afghan cities, it has intensified its efforts in rural regions, positioning itself as more powerful than at any time since being ousted by U.S.-backed forces in late 2001.

According to SIGAR, the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces have decreased to 308,693 personnel, representing 87.7 percent of their assigned strength, which is the lowest level since the establishment of NATO’s training mission in January 2015.

Currently, approximately 14,000 U.S. troops are in Afghanistan as part of the NATO-led Resolute Support mission and a separate counter-terrorism operation targeting groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Additionally, around 8,000 troops from 38 other countries are involved in the Resolute Support mission.

The report did not specify the reasons behind the declining troop numbers, and the Afghan government has not disclosed casualty figures. Security analysts point to ongoing issues with re-enlistment and unauthorized absences as significant factors. President Ashraf Ghani disclosed in Switzerland last week that 45,000 members of the Afghan security forces have been killed since he took office in 2014, a statistic that analysts believe reflects serious morale issues. SIGAR noted that this translates to an average of approximately 849 Afghan security personnel killed per month over the past 53 months.

Additionally, SIGAR reported that recruiting and retaining women within the national defense and security forces poses a major challenge. Citing declassified information from U.S. Forces-Afghanistan, SIGAR revealed that Afghan forces currently have only 4,735 female personnel, accounting for less than 2 percent of their total assigned strength.