Overseas Perspective: Pakistan Elections Disappoint and Increase Instability

By David Brunnstrom, Charlotte Greenfield, and Krishn Kaushik

WASHINGTON – The recent election in Pakistan has yielded a result that is largely disappointing for the nation’s foreign partners and rivals, leaving little optimism about the future government, according to foreign policy analysts.

Pakistan’s two major political parties are currently in negotiations to establish who will be the next prime minister after an inconclusive vote last week led to a necessity for coalition-building in a parliament that has a strong presence of independent candidates.

Neither Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) nor the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, were able to secure enough seats to govern independently. Instead, independent candidates affiliated with former Prime Minister Imran Khan emerged as the largest group, claiming 93 of the 264 seats declared so far. This was unexpected given the widespread belief that Khan’s party would perform poorly due to a severe crackdown against them.

However, Khan remains in jail and his faction cannot form a government since they officially contested as independents following the barring of his party from participation. Analysts suggest that the election results might reflect a public protest against perceived military interference in politics, despite the military’s denials of involvement.

This creates a landscape of increasing political instability, compounded by the military’s historical influence in the country’s security and foreign affairs. Frederic Grare, a South Asia expert, commented on Pakistan’s troubling trajectory, noting that while the military might manage the situation temporarily, long-term stability seems uncertain.

The implications of this election are concerning for various stakeholders, including Pakistan’s key ally China, its adversary India, and the United States, which, despite a diminished interest following its withdrawal from Afghanistan, remains wary of the Islamist threat that can foster instability in the region.

The emergence of a weak government raises doubts about Pakistan’s ability to implement necessary reforms required for securing a crucial International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in the near future. Last week, the United States, Britain, and the European Union each voiced concerns regarding the electoral process and called for investigations into irregularities, which Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister rejected.

Among the few who may view the election outcome positively are some Middle Eastern nations. Analysts suggest that these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, might feel relieved by Khan’s absence from power, as his administration had a fraught relationship with many of Pakistan’s traditional Gulf allies.

Tamanna Salikuddin from the United States Institute of Peace commented that this election has exacerbated the ongoing political crisis in Pakistan, which has lingered since Khan’s removal in 2022. She highlighted the loss of public trust in political leaders and the absence of a viable plan for economic recovery, leaving the nation susceptible to further instability.

Much of Pakistan’s debt is owed to China, which will likely express concern over the lack of necessary economic reforms in the wake of this electoral outcome. China’s flagship infrastructure initiative in Pakistan, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), has stalled in recent times, and any future government will need a strong mandate to revitalize such projects.

Elizabeth Threlkeld, a former U.S. diplomat in Pakistan, emphasized the urgency for any new government to prioritize negotiations for a new IMF deal, warning that ongoing political uncertainty could complicate such efforts at a critical juncture.

Former Indian diplomats noted that the ambiguous election results could challenge India’s relations with Pakistan, prompting a “wait-and-watch” stance from Delhi regarding future engagements.

Sharat Sabharwal, a former high commissioner to Pakistan, remarked that advancing relations with India would require a political consensus that may not be attainable under the current circumstances, especially given the potential backlash from political opponents.

Khan himself has accused the U.S. of conspiring against his government, a claim that Washington has firmly denied. Amidst this chaotic backdrop, many in the international community are simply seeking a functional government in Pakistan that can engage in normal diplomatic relations without the shadow of conspiracy theories.

Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, stated that there is a pressing desire for a legitimate government that can be engaged with reliably, marking a critical moment for Pakistan to stabilize its political landscape.