Why Barclays Anticipates Tesla’s Third-Quarter Deliveries Will Exceed Consensus Estimates

Tesla’s third-quarter electric vehicle deliveries are projected to rise by 8% compared to the same period last year, reaching approximately 470,000 units, according to Barclays analysts.

In their client note, the analysts mentioned that this estimate surpasses the company’s consensus estimate of 461,000 units.

They highlighted positive indicators reported so far this quarter, particularly from China, suggesting that Tesla’s sales performance is well-understood by investors, who are anticipating a stronger outcome.

The analysts estimated that Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries in China, the largest automotive market and a crucial measure of global electric vehicle demand, likely reached around 179,000 units, which would set a new quarterly record. They noted that Tesla’s performance in China, despite ongoing price competition with local rivals, has been “surprisingly robust.”

They speculated that strong demand in China could be attributed to an improving macroeconomic environment and heightened interest in electric vehicles. Additionally, they mentioned that incentives, pricing strategies, or renewed interest ahead of the 2025 launch of full self-driving technology could be contributing to this demand.

Tesla has announced plans to introduce full self-driving technology in China early next year, pending regulatory approval. This timeline is slightly delayed compared to earlier projections from CEO Elon Musk, who had initially aimed for a rollout by the end of this year.

In the previous quarter, Tesla reported electric vehicle deliveries that exceeded expectations and surpassed production numbers, indicating a potential improvement in demand that may alleviate concerns regarding excess inventory of the Model 3 and Model Y.

In the second quarter, Tesla achieved deliveries of 443,956 vehicles, surpassing Wall Street expectations of around 438,000, which has fueled optimism that the worst of the downturn in the broader electric vehicle market may be behind us.