Prospects for a Gaza Ceasefire Dwindle Despite Ongoing US Optimism – Reuters

By Trevor Hunnicutt, Matt Spetalnick, and Humeyra Pamuk

WASHINGTON – U.S. officials remain hopeful for a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza, but are growing increasingly skeptical of achieving a breakthrough in the near future, as indicated by sources familiar with the ongoing discussions.

Recent reports suggest that senior U.S. officials have privately acknowledged the possibility that an agreement may not materialize before President Joe Biden’s term concludes in January. However, several officials stress that this perspective does not reflect the views of the entire administration.

"I do not rule it out," stated one official when asked if a deal could be reached by the end of Biden’s term, emphasizing that work continues to address remaining issues. "That doesn’t mean it will get done," the official added, opting to remain anonymous.

Since August, U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have raised expectations for a truce, claiming a deal was nearly finalized, with just a few challenging disagreements left to resolve. Yet, frequent changes in demands from both Israel and Hamas have complicated negotiations, leading to significant frustration among U.S. leaders.

The chances for a quick resolution have diminished further following a recent unprecedented attack on Hezbollah, resulting in the deaths of 37 individuals and thousands more injured. In a separate development, Israel conducted an airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs that killed a senior commander of Hezbollah.

"A senior administration official remarked that we don’t appear to be particularly close at the moment," highlighting the challenges faced by negotiators attempting to secure a deal. As these discussions unfold, doubts persist regarding the commitment of Israel and Hamas to finalize an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu introduced new demands in July, while Hamas has also altered its expectations regarding prisoner exchanges.

John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, noted that the evolving nature of the conflict has affected the leaders’ decision-making processes. "The war evolved in many different ways, and conditions on the ground changed," Kirby stated.

The U.S. is urging both Israel and Hamas to act with urgency, especially in light of the potential for further escalation in the conflict with Hezbollah, which may overshadow diplomatic efforts in the region.

The recent attack on Hezbollah members is widely believed to have been executed by Israel, although the country has not confirmed its involvement.

One of the critical issues hindering progress has been disagreements over a stretch of land known as the Philadelphi corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt. Additionally, the numbers and types of prisoners to be exchanged have emerged as significant sticking points.

Despite the obstacles, President Biden expressed determination when asked about the feasibility of an agreement. "If I ever said it was not realistic, I might as well leave. A lot of things don’t look realistic until you get it done. We have to keep at it," he stated.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas militants launched an attack on southern Israel, resulting in the deaths of 1,200 people and the abduction of 250 others, leading to the latest escalation in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In retaliation, Israel has conducted a military offensive in Gaza, causing significant casualties, with Palestinian officials reporting over 40,000 deaths and widespread destruction in the region.