Saudi Arabia Seeks U.S. Defense Pact Before Presidential Election, Reports Reuters

By Samia Nakhoul, Dan Williams, and Matt Spetalnick

DUBAI – Sources indicate that Saudi Arabia may be open to a political commitment from Israel regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state, rather than requiring a legally binding agreement. This maneuver aims to facilitate a defense pact with the United States prior to the upcoming presidential election.

Recent months saw U.S.-led efforts to normalize ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel stall after Riyadh halted discussions in October, reacting to growing Arab dissatisfaction over the ongoing conflict in Gaza.

Despite this, Saudi Arabia is increasingly focused on enhancing its security and countering threats from Iran in order to progress with its economic transformation plans and attract substantial foreign investment.

To ease negotiations surrounding Israel’s recognition and get the U.S. defense agreement back on track, Saudi officials have communicated to their U.S. counterparts that they would not demand Israel take definitive steps toward establishing a Palestinian state, opting instead for a political commitment to a two-state solution.

This potential regional deal, seen as ambitious even prior to the Israel-Hamas conflict, would face considerable political and diplomatic hurdles, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding the escalation of the Gaza war.

A defense pact that would provide military protection to Saudi Arabia in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel could significantly alter the dynamics in the Middle East by aligning two historic adversaries and solidifying Riyadh’s ties with Washington during a period of increasing Chinese influence in the region.

Such an agreement would also enhance Israel’s security against its primary competitor, Iran, and afford U.S. President Joe Biden a diplomatic win to showcase ahead of the November 5 election.

Privately, Saudi officials have urged the U.S. to encourage Israel to cease military operations in Gaza and to establish a "political horizon" for a Palestinian state. They argue that such actions would allow Riyadh to move forward with normalization and contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction efforts.

Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center, noted that Saudi Arabia’s message to the U.S. has been clear: a cessation of hostilities, the provision of humanitarian aid, and a commitment to a fair solution to grant Palestinians a state is vital for any agreement.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has dismissed calls for a Palestinian state following the conflict in Gaza, which poses a major barrier to negotiations.

Normalization would require, at least politically, a commitment from Israel to the two-state solution, according to a regional source familiar with the Saudi perspective. The source indicated that if Israel halted its military actions in Gaza or declared a ceasefire, it would facilitate the normalization process.

The Saudi government has not publicly commented on the situation.

The urgency behind Riyadh’s diplomatic efforts is propelled by the need to finalize a deal while the current U.S. administration is in power and controls the Senate, coupled with the growing apprehension regarding Iran’s military presence in the region, particularly through proxy alliances across neighboring countries.

Historically, some Democratic lawmakers have opposed such agreements, criticizing Saudi Arabia for its military interventions and human rights issues. However, given President Biden’s interest in reaching an agreement, this may represent the best opportunity to secure legislative approval.

While the Saudis have not outlined specific criteria for a "pathway" to Palestinian statehood, this vagueness could allow for a deal with Israel that doesn’t mandate significant actions.

There has been no revival of Saudi proposals to provide Israel with normalized relations with the Arab world in exchange for its withdrawal from territories seized in the 1967 conflict.

Despite the challenges, Arab diplomats, including those from Saudi Arabia, have communicated to U.S. officials that substantive American pressure on Israel is necessary for any progress toward Palestinian statehood.

U.S. State Department officials have confirmed ongoing discussions with Saudi Arabia regarding aspects of the normalization deal, including nuclear cooperation and security assurances. However, the success of these talks hinges on Israel’s willingness to align with a pathway to Palestinian statehood and to conclude the war in Gaza.

"If the current discussions are successful, significant decisions will have to be made," said one analyst, suggesting that the normalization talks have been exclusive to Netanyahu and his key advisors.

As tensions mount, a U.S. source expressed belief that Riyadh’s determination to secure U.S. defense guarantees would likely encourage some adaptability regarding the Israeli commitment to Palestinian statehood.

Netanyahu’s agreement would represent a major diplomatic triumph while potentially revitalizing Palestinian aspirations for statehood with comprehensive Arab support.

The Biden administration appears aware of the intricate dynamics in play, with plans for U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to return to the region soon for talks.

As negotiations continue, time may be running short for achieving a significant agreement; the political climate in the U.S. becomes increasingly complex as the election approaches.