Scholz’s Social Democrats Resist Far-Right in German State Election, Exit Polls Indicate

By Riham Alkousaa and Sarah Marsh

BERLIN – In the state election held in Brandenburg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) appeared to successfully combat the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), despite initially trailing during the campaign, according to exit polls.

The SPD, which has controlled the state surrounding Berlin since reunification in 1990, captured 31.8% of the vote, narrowly surpassing the AfD, which received 29.2%, marking a significant late surge for the SPD, as reported by broadcaster ZDF.

This achievement could provide Scholz with a temporary break from party discussions regarding his potential candidacy for the upcoming federal election scheduled for next September, especially given his lack of popularity among voters.

However, the outcome is unlikely to significantly boost Scholz or the party, as the incumbent SPD premier, Dietmar Woidke, had distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign and criticized the policies of the federal government.

"Dietmar Woidke and his Brandenburg SPD have made a furious comeback in recent weeks," commented SPD party general secretary Kevin Kuehnert. "For us in the federal SPD, this evening, if things go well, the problems that lie ahead of us will not have gotten any bigger. But they have not gotten any smaller either," he added.

The exit poll conducted by ARD indicated that three-quarters of SPD voters chose the party mainly to counter the AfD, rather than out of strong support for the SPD itself. Voter turnout also increased to 73% from 61% in the previous election five years ago, according to ZDF.

On a national scale, the SPD is currently polling at only 15%, down from 25.7% in the 2021 federal election, which places it behind the AfD at around 20% and opposition conservatives at 32%. The combined support for all three parties in Scholz’s diverse coalition stands at approximately 30%, which is less than what the conservatives alone currently enjoy.

The coalition has faced criticism for its ongoing disputes and its management of immigration issues. In the eastern regions of Germany, where former communist governance persists, many voters are also dissatisfied with the government’s military support to Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia.

Woidke cautioned against any sense of complacency, highlighting the AfD’s ongoing momentum and noting that the party had increased its support by 5.7 percentage points since the last Brandenburg election in 2019.

AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla pointed out that the party had made significant inroads with young voters, a trend also observed among far-right parties throughout Europe during the recent EU elections.

The new leftist group led by Sahra Wagenknecht appears set to secure third place with 12%, surpassing the conservatives, which garnered 11.6%, reflecting the unpredictable changes in Germany’s political environment.

The Greens, part of Scholz’s federal coalition, received 4.7%, just below the threshold required for automatic entry into the state parliament. Meanwhile, the performance of the Free Democrats (FDP), the other junior coalition partner, was deemed too minimal to be represented in the poll.