La Niña Weather 71% Likely to Develop from September to November, According to US Forecaster – Reuters

La Nina Conditions Expected to Develop This Fall

A recent forecast from a U.S. government agency indicates a 71% probability of La Nina weather patterns emerging between September and November. These conditions are anticipated to continue into the January-March period of the following year, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

Significance of La Nina

La Nina is characterized by cooler-than-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This climate pattern is known to be associated with both increased flooding and drought occurrences, as well as a heightened frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. The anticipated La Nina event is likely to lead to reduced rainfall, intensifying drought conditions that could have a global impact on agriculture.

Background Information

The cyclical nature of El Nino, La Nina, and neutral phases typically spans two to seven years. Earlier this week, Japan’s meteorological service reported a 60% likelihood of experiencing La Nina conditions from now until winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

On a related note, a recent survey suggests that Brazilian soybean farmers may see a 14% increase in production for the 2024/2025 season compared to the prior year, driven by expectations of more rain in the final quarter of the year.

Expert Insights

David Oxley, the head of climate economics at Capital Economics, emphasized, "The agricultural and livestock sectors are clearly most at risk from the effects of La Nina, particularly in regions vital for the cultivation of crops such as soybeans and corn."

Jason Nicholls, lead international forecaster at AccuWeather, added, "While a typical La Nina may not develop if the signal is weak, the areas most vulnerable to dryness and diminished crop production will be in Argentina, Uruguay, and southeast Brazil during their summer months."