The US Election Map is “Now Shifting Back to Trump’s Favor”: Strategas

Strategas has indicated that the U.S. electoral landscape is shifting back to favor former President Trump after a two-month period of strong performance by Vice President Kamala Harris.

The analysis, based on a combination of internal polling and public indicators, reveals a decline in momentum for Harris in key swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin. Prominent Democrats in these states have expressed concern over internal polling that suggests a favorable shift toward Trump.

A recent internal poll shared by Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin shows Harris trailing Trump in Wisconsin, while Baldwin herself holds a slight advantage. Strategas warns that this trend could have implications not only for the presidential race but also for Senate races.

The report underscores that while Harris can afford to lose Pennsylvania and still reach the necessary 270 electoral votes by winning states like North Carolina and Nevada, her chances of securing the presidency significantly diminish if she loses Michigan or Wisconsin.

The electoral strategy for Harris has largely revolved around securing the “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. However, with current polling trends favoring Trump in these critical areas, the political map indicates a shift toward him.

Harris has benefitted somewhat from a recent drop in the Misery Index, which has helped narrow Trump’s advantage on economic issues. Nonetheless, in vital swing states—especially those with robust manufacturing sectors and significant union influence—Trump’s visibility and emphasis on job creation and the threat posed by China have positioned him favorably, areas where Harris’s presence has been less prominent.

Additionally, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have affected sentiments within the Arab-American community. Some voters could potentially turn away from Harris, not necessarily toward Trump, but rather to third-party candidates or abstain from voting altogether.

Strategas highlights that Trump’s message is resonating more powerfully in key states. While Harris has seen some advantages from an improving economy, her media strategy, which seeks to minimize public commitments, appears to have reached its limits.

Although she has increased her public appearances, they have not yet succeeded in attracting undecided voters. While minor shifts are apparent, the race remains closely contested. Strategas notes that the majority of the country is still evenly divided, but for now, Trump is reclaiming ground in the electoral college map.