Russia Upgrades Aging Tanks Following Loss of 3,000 in Ukraine

By Mark Trevelyan and Greg Torode

LONDON – According to a prominent research institute, Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks in Ukraine, which is equal to its entire active inventory before the war. However, Russia reportedly has sufficient lower-quality armored vehicles in storage that could serve as replacements for several years.

Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has also endured significant losses, but Western military support has enabled Ukraine to maintain its inventory and even upgrade its equipment, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported.

Despite losing a substantial number of tanks—including around 1,120 within the last year—Russia still possesses approximately twice as many tanks ready for combat compared to Ukraine, as noted in IISS’s annual Military Balance, an essential resource for defense analysts.

Henry Boyd, a senior fellow at the institute specializing in military capability, indicated that Russia has been approximately "breaking even" concerning its tank replacements, adding an estimated 1,000 to 1,500 tanks into service over the last year. Most of these tanks are refurbished older models, with only about 200 being newly constructed.

The report highlighted that Moscow has prioritized quantity over quality, withdrawing thousands of older tanks from storage at a pace that may have reached 90 tanks per month at times.

With its stored inventories, Russia could potentially endure approximately three more years of heavy losses while replenishing its tanks, even if these replacements are of lower technical standards and regardless of its ability to manufacture new equipment.

No comments were received from Russia’s defense ministry regarding these findings.

DIFFICULT DECISIONS FOR UKRAINE AND THE WEST

As the conflict enters its second year, Ukraine and its Western allies confront challenging decisions, according to the IISS report. Ben Barry, a senior land warfare analyst at IISS, pointed out that Ukraine has attempted to shield some of its younger soldiers—whose average age is reported to be in their early 40s—but maintaining this strategy may become increasingly difficult.

"They have deliberately protected their youth, but the extent to which they can continue to do so is questionable if they aim to sustain their frontline strength,” he stated.

Ukraine, which struggled to make headway in a counter-offensive last year and recently replaced its popular commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, is in urgent need of artillery supplies and air defense systems, particularly as it awaits a significant new aid package from the U.S., which has been delayed due to political opposition.

Bastian Giegerich, the IISS Director-General, noted that Western governments find themselves again evaluating whether to provide Kyiv with sufficient weapons for a decisive impact, rather than merely enough to avoid defeat.

In response to the ongoing conflict, Russia has shifted its economy to a wartime footing, operating defense factories on a round-the-clock production schedule.

"This is a staggering figure," said defense analyst Alexander Neill, referring to the estimate of 3,000 lost tanks. He raised concerns about how many of Russia’s most advanced tanks remain available for potential future offensives.

Given the substantial losses on both sides and the attritional nature of trench warfare, IISS experts predict that the current stalemate is likely to continue. "Neither side can initiate a large-scale attack without suffering significant casualties, and this situation is expected to persist for the foreseeable future," said Barry.