Trump Holds Advantage on Key Issues with Swing-State Voters – BTIG

The US presidential election race is currently viewed as “effectively a toss-up,” although analysts from BTIG suggest that Donald Trump’s strength with swing-state voters on key issues provides him with a slight advantage.

Recent polling data shows that Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic opponent, has experienced an increase in favorability among likely voters after a closely-watched debate earlier this month.

In a note to clients, BTIG analysts highlighted that “fundamental factors” currently favor Trump’s campaign, particularly regarding the all-important Electoral College. Both candidates need at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, and at present, both appear likely to secure around 200 votes. This indicates that critical battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, will be pivotal in determining the election’s outcome.

The analysts’ research into state-level polling data reveals that Trump holds a lead on the two key issues that resonate most with voters: the economy and immigration. However, they pointed out that Harris is narrowing the gap, particularly on economic issues, and anticipates her campaign will focus on housing affordability and childcare costs to attract more voters.

Additionally, Harris continues to lead on other important issues that rank just below the economy and immigration for swing state voters, including abortion, healthcare, democracy, and senior services.

With weeks remaining before the election, pollsters caution that opinion figures could change, as polling in swing states is often within the margin of error. Currently, BTIG analysts express a strong belief that Republicans will gain control of the Senate but remind that any political predictions should be approached with caution.