Japan Could Achieve Energy Independence by 2060 Through Renewables, Says Rystad Energy CEO

By Katya Golubkova

TOKYO – Japan, a significant purchaser of coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), has the potential to achieve energy independence by 2060 through the increased use of solar and wind power alongside storage batteries, according to Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy consultancy.

Currently, Japan relies heavily on imported energy resources, primarily from the Middle East, Australia, and the United States. The government’s plan aims to reduce the contribution of LNG and coal to less than 40% of the power generation mix by 2030, down from over 60% today. However, analysts believe progress is slower than necessary.

Rystad remarked, "Japan’s mindset is that we have to import energy because we have no energy ourselves. But with the advancements in renewable energy technologies, that doesn’t have to be true."

The consultancy’s projections indicate that by 2060, Japan could be energy-sufficient with a mix comprising 45% solar power, 30% wind energy from offshore farms, 5% hydropower, another 5% from biomass and e-fuel, and 15% supplied by nuclear power.

He emphasized, "All Japan needs is to continue installing solar capacity at the pace seen before 2020. From 2014 onward, installations peaked between 10 and 12 gigawatts annually."

In 2022, Japan added approximately 4 GW of new solar capacity, bringing its total to 87 GW, making it the third-largest solar capacity globally, behind China and the United States.

Rystad also suggested innovative strategies like integrating agriculture with solar panels to utilize the shade they provide for certain crops and installing solar rooftops above roadways could further enhance solar energy use.

"The combination of offshore and onshore wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, supported by battery storage and pumped hydro systems, should enable Japan to achieve energy self-sufficiency by 2060," he said.