La Niña Weather Has a 65% Chance of Developing from July to September, According to US Forecaster – Reuters

By Harshit Verma

A U.S. government forecaster has indicated there is a 65% likelihood that the La Nina weather pattern, marked by cooler temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will develop between July and September. This transition from the current neutral phase, which exists between La Nina and El Nino, is expected to continue into the winter of 2024-25, with an 85% chance during the November to January period, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

The alternating phases of El Nino, La Nina, and neutral conditions usually span two to seven years and can generate extreme weather events such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, floods, and extended droughts, affecting farmers globally. Crops that are concentrated in specific geographic areas are particularly vulnerable to price increases due to adverse weather, which suggests that global wheat and corn prices may be less impacted by La Nina or El Nino patterns, according to Bill Weatherburn, a senior climate and commodities economist.

El Nino signifies a natural warming of surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, whereas La Nina is recognized by cooler elevations in the equatorial Pacific. Maxar meteorologist Chris Hyde notes that La Nina is associated with warm and dry conditions in North America, particularly the Midwest, as well as in East Asia, such as China, and parts of South America including Argentina and Brazil during the growing season.

In contrast, La Nina can be beneficial for certain crops in regions like South Africa (maize), South and Southeast Asia (India’s sugarcane and wheat), and Australia, as it often brings increased rainfall, enhancing crop performance despite potential flooding risks, according to Isaac Hankes, a senior weather analyst.

Experts agree that the timing and intensity of La Nina significantly affect these weather-related correlations. Other meteorological bodies, including the World Meteorological Organization and Japan’s weather bureau, have similarly noted the conclusion of the El Nino phenomenon and anticipate the formation of La Nina this year.

For India, the transition from El Nino to La Nina is likely to result in a wetter monsoon season; however, the Indian Oscillation Dipole (IOD) phenomenon could also play a role in determining rainfall intensity. A positive IOD event typically results in a wetter summer monsoon, while a negative IOD can lead to drier conditions, as explained by AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster, Jason Nicholls.