US Crude Stockpiles Anticipated to Increase

US crude inventories and product builds are projected to rise for the week ending June 21, according to a report from strategists at Macquarie.

Macquarie anticipates an increase of 5.3 million barrels, contrasting with a draw of 2.5 million barrels for the previous week. This suggests that the overall US crude balance may be more relaxed than previously thought.

The firm’s model indicates a slight decline in crude runs from refineries following last week’s uninspiring figures. A significant rise in net imports is expected, primarily due to a considerable drop in exports of 1 million barrels per day and nearly stable imports. The strategists noted that weather-related port disruptions and timing of cargo deliveries could add volatility to this week’s crude balance.

In terms of domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, a slight nominal increase of 0.2 million barrels per day is expected. Additionally, the inventory of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is predicted to see a larger rise of 1.3 million barrels.

Regarding Cushing, Macquarie’s refinery and pipeline model forecasts a draw of 0.7 million barrels. When looking at product categories, the strategists project a draw in gasoline of 1.3 million barrels, while distillate and jet fuel are expected to see increases of 1.4 million barrels and 1.5 million barrels, respectively.

The implied demand for these three products is modeled at 14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending June.