US Natgas Output Expected to Decline as Demand Reaches Record High in 2024, EIA Reports

U.S. natural gas production is anticipated to decrease in 2024, while demand is projected to rise to an all-time high, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The EIA forecasts that dry gas production will dip slightly from a record 103.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 to 103.5 bcfd in 2024. This decline is attributed to several producers scaling back on drilling as average spot gas prices at the Henry Hub fell to a 32-year low in March.

Looking ahead to 2025, the EIA expects production to recover to 104.6 bcfd.

Additionally, domestic gas consumption is anticipated to increase, moving from a record 89.1 bcfd in 2023 to 90.1 bcfd in 2024 before retreating to 89.1 bcfd in 2025.

If these projections hold true, 2024 would mark the first decline in output since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic led to reduced fuel demand. Conversely, this year would witness the first rise in demand for four consecutive years since 2016.

The latest projections for 2024 surpass the EIA’s earlier estimates from September, which indicated supplies would reach 103.4 bcfd and consumption would hit 89.9 bcfd.

Furthermore, the agency predicts that average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports will rise to 12.1 bcfd in 2024 and 13.8 bcfd in 2025, up from a previous record of 11.9 bcfd in 2023.

Coal production in the U.S. is projected to decline significantly, from 577.5 million short tons in 2023 to 510 million tons in 2024—the lowest output since 1964. It is expected to fall further to 484.6 million tons in 2025, the lowest level since 1963, as natural gas and renewable energy sources continue to replace coal-fired power plants.

In terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, the EIA anticipates a decrease from 4.791 billion metric tons in 2023 to 4.777 billion metric tons in 2024, driven by a reduction in oil and coal usage. However, emissions are projected to rise slightly to 4.794 billion metric tons in 2025 as the use of petroleum and coal increases again.

For context, carbon emissions stood at 4.584 billion metric tons in 2020, which was the lowest level observed since 1983, primarily due to the impact of the pandemic on energy demand.