Factbox: Guaido vs. Maduro – Who Supports Venezuela’s Competing Presidents By Reuters

A number of European countries have recently joined the United States and other Western powers in recognizing Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela, escalating the international confrontation regarding Nicolas Maduro’s rule.

Guaido has claimed that the May 2018 election, in which Maduro secured a second term, was fraudulent. On January 23, he invoked a constitutional provision to declare himself president, pledging to hold free and fair elections.

The 35-year-old opposition leader has gained support from various Western nations. However, leading countries such as Russia, China, and Turkey continue to support Maduro and criticize what they perceive as foreign interference in Venezuela’s internal affairs.

Support for Maduro:

• The Venezuelan military leadership remains steadfastly loyal to Maduro. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino has asserted that the armed forces reject any self-declared president.
• Russia and China, significant investors in Venezuela’s oil sector and key creditors to the faltering government, have criticized U.S. involvement and blocked attempts for United Nations Security Council backing of Guaido.
• Turkey has aligned itself with Maduro, diverging from its NATO partners, while Iran has accused the U.S. of pursuing global dominance.
• The Venezuelan Supreme Court, filled with Maduro supporters, has declared actions taken by the opposition-led congress null and void.
• PDVSA, the state oil company that constitutes the majority of Venezuela’s export income, has remained loyal to Maduro. PDVSA’s President and Oil Minister Manuel Quevedo recently labeled Guaido a "puppet" of the U.S.
• Several leftist governments in the region, including Cuba, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, continue to support Maduro. Mexico, under leftist President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, has shifted to a non-interventionist stance, moving away from the previous administration’s opposition to Maduro.
• Both Mexico and Uruguay have advocated for dialogue between the Venezuelan government and opposition to address the political crisis.

Support for Guaido:

• The U.S. promptly recognized Guaido following his self-proclamation, vowing to leverage its "economic and diplomatic power" to restore democracy in Venezuela.
• Numerous right-leaning Latin American governments, including Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina, quickly acknowledged Guaido’s leadership.
• A coordinated effort among European nations, including the UK, Germany, France, and Spain, led to recognition of Guaido on February 4, after a deadline for Maduro to call new presidential elections passed.
• Countries such as Australia, Canada, Israel, and Morocco have also expressed support for Guaido.
• There are indications that Guaido’s backing is growing beyond traditional middle- and upper-class demographics. Recent protests against Maduro have emerged in working-class neighborhoods, and numerous former supporters of Chávez and Maduro have participated in opposition marches recently.
• Some lower-ranking military personnel have voiced discontent with the Maduro government. Reports indicate that on January 21, authorities thwarted a military uprising where a group of officers stole weapons, kidnapped other officials, and called for Maduro’s resignation.
• Air Force General Francisco Yanez became the first active-duty general to publicly recognize Guaido in a video circulating on February 2, although observers caution that Maduro’s administration has inflated the ranks of generals significantly.

Yanez’s defection followed the earlier resignation of Venezuela’s top military envoy to the United States.