Cuba’s ‘Migratory Stampede’ Shows No Signs of Stopping, Reports Reuters

By Carlos Carrillo

HAVANA – Cuban chemist Deisy Herrera felt devastated when her two sons decided to leave the island in pursuit of a better future.

"Those were terrible times," said the 61-year-old pharmaceutical worker, struggling to hold back tears during an interview at her Havana home. "When you have kids, you never think they will leave. But we all know the situation here."

The economic crisis in Cuba has triggered an unprecedented wave of emigration, far surpassing previous mass migrations, such as the 1980 Mariel boatlift.

Internally, there is an ongoing debate among population scientists regarding the extent of the decline, with recent estimates suggesting a drop in the population of 10% since 2020, while other studies indicate that nearly one in five residents have left in the past two years.

Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, a Cuban economist and population scientist with three decades of research experience, recently shocked many by estimating that the island’s population had plummeted to 8.62 million, marking an 18% decrease since 2022. He noted this figure reflects what he termed a "migratory stampede."

The majority of Cuban migrants are heading to the United States. Meanwhile, Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga from Cuba’s official statistics agency estimates the population at 10.1 million, which, while higher than Albizu-Campos’ figure, still indicates a significant decline of 10% since 2020.

The disparity between these estimates hinges on technical specifics that experts believe should be clarified with a national census. However, an official population count has been postponed until at least 2025.

While the actual scale of migration remains a topic of discussion, experts agree that most of those leaving are young, able-bodied individuals.

Official statistics have long indicated a significant drop in birth rates in Cuba, which now fall below the levels needed to replace the population lost each year. According to recent data, one in four Cubans is over 60 years old, posing an increasing burden on the country’s healthcare system and economy.

Antonio Aja, director of the University of Havana’s Center for Demographic Studies, highlights that Cuba’s situation—with low birth rates and rising emigration—is distinctive.

"When you look at the statistics from the U.S., Europe, and some South American countries, you see that they are receiving immigrants, which helps rejuvenate their population structure," he noted. "In Cuba’s case, we are losing both population and our young people."