U.N. Warns a South Sudan Vote Could Lead to Disaster and Catastrophe, According to Reuters

By Tom Miles

GENEVA – According to U.N. investigators, the situation in South Sudan could deteriorate further if neighboring countries allow President Salva Kiir to hold elections before embracing peacekeepers, establishing a ceasefire, and recognizing political opposition.

Since the outbreak of civil war in 2013, triggered by a fallout between Kiir and his deputy, Riek Machar, the conflict has claimed between 50,000 and 300,000 lives, as estimated by the African Union (AU), and led to the displacement of millions and a looming famine.

Yasmin Sooka, head of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, described the ongoing violence as an "absolutely unimaginable cruelty" during a news conference in Geneva.

Following Machar’s flight from the country last year, Kiir’s forces ignited a renewed conflict in the Equatorias region, intensifying opposition against Kiir’s Dinka tribe, to which nearly a quarter of South Sudan’s population belongs.

With Kiir’s mandate set to expire in April, he has indicated a desire for new elections, a move that Sooka and fellow commissioner Godfrey Musila warned would be catastrophic.

Musila asserted that a democratically elected Dinka president was unlikely, suggesting that if the Dinka were to maintain power, it would necessitate a military approach: "It has to be a police state."

Outside powers must urgently take steps to establish a legitimate government, he emphasized. The primary objective should be the full deployment of a 4,000-strong regional protection force that was agreed upon a year ago by Kiir and the East African bloc IGAD.

While currently limited to the capital, Juba, this force would facilitate the return of opposition groups and allow U.N. peacekeepers to operate more broadly, thus paving the way for a ceasefire that the opposition, lacking military support, would likely accept. However, only 400 members of this force have arrived so far.

Sooka highlighted the potential of a "hybrid court," designed by the AU and South Sudan to prosecute suspects, including senior political and military figures. She mentioned that she has an "almost prosecutorial mandate" from the U.N. Human Rights Council and plans to assemble a team of 16, including forensic analysts and military advisors, on the ground this week.

On the recent developments, South Sudan’s Justice Minister Paulino Wanawilla Unango informed the Council that the government is still integrating last year’s agreement with IGAD.

Sooka urged the AU to impose consequences if the government fails to take necessary actions, referring to previous interventions such as the one in Gambia in January that led to the ousting of President Yahya Jammeh.

"The West Africans camped outside of Gambia and told the president if you don’t go, our armies will come in," she remarked. "But will the East African community or IGAD do that?"