Lead Times for iPhone 16 Extending, but Weaker Demand at Higher End

Lead times for Apple’s iPhone 16 lineup have lengthened in several important markets, indicating strong demand along with mixed signals for the higher-end models.

Citi analysts noted that lead times for the iPhone 16 base model have increased by about a week in the U.S., China, India, and the UK.

For the Pro model, lead times rose by 3 to 7 days in most regions, while the Pro Max model exhibited varied trends: stable in the U.S. and UK, but increasing in India and decreasing in China.

Supply chain improvements this year, along with features associated with Apple’s new iOS 18, could further affect demand during this sales cycle, according to analysts. They believe that the availability of new iOS 18 features will likely impact the iPhone 16 sales cycle and seasonality.

JPMorgan analysts reported similar observations, noting that global lead times for the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and Pro Max have reached 17, 16, 23, and 29 days, respectively. In comparison, the previous generation’s models had even longer lead times, particularly for the Pro models.

In the U.S., the iPhone 16 Plus experienced the most significant increase, with lead times rising from 5 to 13 days. The Pro Max also saw its lead time extend from 23 to 28 days.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan analysts indicated that monitoring whether lead times stabilize in the coming weeks will be essential to gauge demand momentum for the second half of 2024, especially before the broader release of new innovations.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs analysts mentioned that Apple’s lead times are tracking similarly to those of the iPhone 15 at this time last year; however, demand appears weaker for the higher-end Pro models. This suggests that while there is strong demand for the base models, the anticipated supercycle effect seen in previous years is not occurring. The firm expects lead times to eventually stabilize as supply aligns with demand.